In a recent air attack on the village of Aitou in northern Lebanon, Israel killed 22 people claiming it was targeting Hezbollah members. However, many believe Israel is expanding its war to target Shia Hezbollah supporters wherever they may have fled. The attack has raised concerns about destabilizing the fragile confessional system in Lebanon, historically exploited by regional states for geopolitical goals.
Analysts fear Israel’s attacks are psychologically tormenting the Lebanese populace and triggering sectarian violence by punishing Hezbollah’s Shia support base. Israel’s tactics of bombing civilian neighborhoods and public buildings have caused panic among Lebanese communities, leading to increased sectarian tensions and the rejection of displaced people. There are reports of Christians monitoring visitors and guests in predominantly Christian areas of Beirut, creating a politics of fear and fostering civil strife.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warnings of potential destruction in Lebanon to save it from Hezbollah illustrate Israel’s intentions to reshape Lebanese politics. However, many experts believe Israel lacks a realistic end game and is comfortable maintaining an indefinite war, akin to the situation in Gaza. The persistent bombing and targeting of civilian areas indicate a strategy of enjoying aerial superiority and raining down fire indefinitely.
The ongoing attacks in Lebanon are seen as a form of psychological warfare and a message to Shia communities that Israel will target them wherever they are. The indiscriminate bombings are deemed unnecessary and are believed to exacerbate sectarian tensions, threaten civil strife, and deepen fault lines in Lebanese society. There are concerns about the long-term repercussions of Israel’s actions on Lebanon’s fragile political structure and societal cohesion.
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